The upcoming year will define Bob Riley's term as governor and may include the Republican governor calling for some sort of tax or fee increase to assist in the state's funding crisis, predicts the chairman of The University of Alabama's political science department.

"My guess is that his attempt to solve the funding crisis by reducing fat is not going to succeed to the point that he wants it to," says UA's Dr. David Lanoue. "It will fail partly because the state budget is fairly lean and because the needs are quite substantial."

One of Riley's specific campaign comments caught Lanoue's eye. "There was one thing he said ... if all else failed he would consider calling for a tax increase. I think it was significant that he left that door open." A tax increase will not come in the form of a property tax hike, as some have suggested. Movement might come, Lanoue said, in terms of increased home rule, which could allow counties to raise local taxes without having to petition the state legislature or hold statewide referendums.

"I think this will be the most important first year for an Alabama governor in recent memory," Lanoue said. "It will really define what he's going to do."

Constitutional reform efforts will not see significant movement, Lanoue predicts. "Some politicians want it, certainly universities want it, but I don't see any real grass-roots support for it, thus far," Lanoue said. "I would have thought it a long-shot if Siegelman won, and I think it's an even longer shot with Riley in there."

At the national level, Lanoue says, "I think the Democratic Party will spend 2003 at war with each other. They know they will have to come up with a coherent opposition to President Bush, but there is no coherency in the party. My guess is that we may see a couple of prominent Democrats cross the aisle, especially in the House."

The link between George Bush's popularity as president and the Democrat's next presidential nominee is a direct one, Lanoue says. "The better Bush does, the more other Democrats will be scared off, creating the possibility that a relatively little-known candidate might emerge with the nomination, as Bill Clinton did in 1992." But, Lanoue says Bush's popularity may sink as quickly as did his father's.

"Once the Iraq war is over, there is going to be more demand by the American people for Bush to get the domestic house in order. They were forgiving in 2002, but I expect they will be less forgiving as time goes by...unless things get better."

Educated Guesses 2003 | Full Listing