President George W. Bush will lose his bid for re-election if the United States goes to war in 2003 against Iraq, predicts a University of Alabama expert in military and political affairs.

Dr. Donald Snow, professor of political science at UA, places the likelihood of a 2003 war with Iraq at 2:1 in favor of a military strike.

"If we go to war with Iraq, it will cost George W. Bush the election in 2004," Snow said. "Even if the war itself goes well, the post-war will not, and that's what's going to do him in.

"Post-War Iraq is going to be an extraordinarily messy place that we are going to have to occupy for a long time," said Snow. "We will become the recruiting poster for al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations."

Military strikes followed by long-term occupation of the land Muslims hold as sacred will not only destroy the shaky coalition the United States has recently built with others in the Middle East, but it will also further erode the economy, Snow predicts.

"If we invade Iraq, there will be a recession," Snow said. The military effort will result in deficit spending, which will trigger higher interest rates and inflation, Snow said as is typically the case following war. A recent exception was the Gulf War, "because our allies paid for it," he said.

"If the war is short, sweet and glorious, as Don Rumsfeld says it will be, that will help the president in the short term," Snow said. However, if the Iraqis use better battle strategy and drag the battles into the streets and houses of Baghdad, it will be chaotic.

"And, if the Iraqis start losing, Iraqi civilians are going to go after representatives of their own government. And all this is going to be on TV," Snow said.

Don't look for Osama Bin Laden to be captured in 2003, Snow says. "We've given up on finding Bin laden, effectively. We'll only get him as an act of sheer random luck."

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