December 19, 2002
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2002
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| Educated Guesses 2003 — Predictions from UA Experts |
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For the 22nd consecutive year, the Office of Media Relations at The University of Alabama offers you a unique feature series — faculty experts predict what lies ahead in the coming year for our military, technology, the economy and more. A sampling of this year's Educated Guesses:
Complete news releases, including contact information for each expert source, can be found by visiting the full listing of Educated Guesses 2003. For more information, contact Chris Bryant in the UA media relations office at 205/348-8323. War Against Iraq would Cost Bush Re-Election President George W. Bush will lose his bid for re-election if the United States goes to war in 2003 against Iraq, predicts a University of Alabama expert in military and political affairs. Dr. Donald Snow, professor of political science at UA, places the likelihood of a 2003 war with Iraq at 2:1 in favor of a military strike. "If we go to war with Iraq, it will cost George W. Bush the election in 2004," Snow said. "Even if the war itself goes well, the post-war will not, and that's what's going to do him in. "Post-War Iraq is going to be an extraordinarily messy place that we are going to have to occupy for a long time," said Snow. "We will become the recruiting poster for al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations." Contact: Dr. Donald Snow, dsnow622@aol.com Technical Gadgets will Continue to Get Smaller, Make Life Easier Palm size computers and special purpose devices will continue to flourish in the coming year, forecasts Dr. Allen Parrish, associate professor of computer science and director of the CARE Research and Development Laboratory at The University of Alabama. The market for new technologies such as Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) will rise as people look to computers to aid in their daily tasks like making restaurant reservations or ordering in restaurants. "For example, servers could make greater use of handheld computers in placing orders for you or there may be restaurants where you can order on your own PDA," Parrish said. "Voice input is going to become popular on PDAs." Parrish believes that computers of 2003 will take different shape in order to increase function. These smaller, lighter computers will give people greater ability to read e-mail in public places without needing a dial up connection. Contact: Dr. Allen Parrish, parrish@cs.ua.edu Riley to Face Crossroads in 2003, Tax Increase to Emerge as Potential Solution for Funding Crisis The upcoming year will define Bob Riley's term as governor and may include the Republican governor calling for some sort of tax or fee increase to assist in the state's funding crisis, predicts the chairman of The University of Alabama's political science department. "My guess is that his attempt to solve the funding crisis by reducing fat is not going to succeed to the point that he wants it to," says UA's Dr. David Lanoue. "It will fail partly because the state budget is fairly lean and because the needs are quite substantial." One of Riley's specific campaign comments caught Lanoue's eye. "There was one thing he said ... if all else failed he would consider calling for a tax increase. I think it was significant that he left that door open." Contact: Dr. David Lanoue, Dec. 16-20 — dlanoue@hotmail.com; other times — dlanoue@tenhoor.as.ua.edu More Shoppers Pushed into Internet Checkout Lanes Online Shopping will continue to grow in usage in 2003, predicts Dr. Barrie Jo Price, a University of Alabama professor in the College of Human Environmental Sciences' Institute for Interactive Technology. Price says several factors will contribute to the increase, including customer service, the economy and gasoline prices. "Many shoppers prefer buying online because they can 'visit' multiple stores online and quickly compare prices on one or more items, and saving a couple of dollars has taken on more importance in these economic times," Price said. "Also, if online shopping sites continue to enhance customer assistance features, such as good search features, or 'personal shoppers' that use synchronous chat features, then online shopping should be in for a good ride in 2003." Contact: Dr. Barrie Jo Price, bjprice@emtech.net SUV Drivers may be Forced to Reduce Fuel Consumption As sports utility vehicles grow more popular, more Americans take to the road in them. But as the possibility of another war in the Middle East looms in 2003, SUV drivers may be forced to leave their big rigs at home, suggests Dr. Dan Turner, professor of civil and environmental engineering at The University of Alabama College of Engineering. "I certainly hope that we do not go to war, but if we do, it can cause major changes in people's lifestyles. They may no longer be able to afford to drive SUVs or to drive so many miles daily," says Turner, who also directs the University Transportation Center for Alabama. Americans are the most mobile people on Earth, and take for granted their ability to drive (cheaply) anywhere they want to, whenever they want to, Turner said. Since the United States heavily depends on the Persian Gulf for oil supply, war could cause serious changes. Contact: Dr. Dan Turner, dturner@coe.eng.ua.edu Goodbye Department Stores as We Knew You Changes in the department store industry will accelerate next year, says Dr. Robert Robicheaux, Bruno Professor of Retail Marketing and director of the Hess Institute for Retailing Development at The University of Alabama. "Department stores as we have known them are on their way out," Robicheaux said. "Those that don't change dramatically will be history. We will see in 2003 a fast-paced movement in America's department stores away from service to even more self service, away from sales price promotion to every-day-low prices and away from capital intensive store expansion to retrenchment. America's department stores are going to look and feel more like discount stores. To borrow a former Alabama politician's famous phrase, "there won't be a dime's difference between 'em." Contact: Dr. Robert A. Robicheaux, rrobiche@cba.ua.edu Look for Possibility of Increased Mortgage Rates Next Year if Economy Continues Recovery Dr. Leonard Zumpano, professor of finance and director of the Alabama Real Estate Research and Education Center, says home buyers can look for mortgage rates to increase next year ... if the economy continues to recover and the competition for loan money increases. Zumpano predicts the Federal Reserve will no longer need to use monetary policy to stimulate economic activity and, if anything, may be on guard against a rise in inflationary price increases. "Rising economic activity will also again put upward pressure on home prices. Throughout most of 2002, falling interest rates have helped sustain housing prices even though the increase in income did not keep pace with home price appreciation," Zumpano said. He also predicts that rising mortgage rates and slow growth income will cause housing affordability to decline in 2003 and may put some downward pressure on home prices, at least in some locations. Contact: Dr. Leonard Zumpano, lzumpano@cba.ua.edu War with Iraq will Cause Drop in Stock Market, Increase Market Place Uncertainty An American attack on Iraq will likely cause a drop in the stock market, a decline that will continue as long as the war goes on or if there is an increase in terrorist attacks on the United States, a University of Alabama finance professor predicts. "If we have war with Iraq, my opinion is that the market will initially go down slightly, as it did in the Gulf War, and then stay down until the conflict is resolved," says Dr. Robert McLeod, professor of finance at UA's Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration and an authority on financial institutions and markets. "The longer the conflict, or if there is an increase in terrorist attacks in the U.S., the greater the effects on the economy due to the psychological impact on investors and consumers. Anytime uncertainty is increased in the market place and the economy, stocks usually go down and consumers spend less," McLeod says. Contact: Dr. Robert McLeod, rmcleod@cba.ua.edu |