With estimates showing the number of Americans 65 and older doubling by the year 2030, changes in health care will have to be made, and we will see some movement in that direction in 2003, predicts Dr. Lucinda Roff, UA professor of social work.

According to Roff, some of those changes include:

• "Baby boomers will be more vocal and active in seeking health care and in lobbying for increased benefits under Medicare."
   
• "Government and private insurers will pay increasingly more attention to preventive health care and to early diagnosis and treatment in an effort to reduce elderly health care costs."
   
• "A big push to transfer institutional care to home care will occur, with Medicare, Medicaid and private insurance providing financial incentives for home care."
   
• "Forms of reimbursed home care for low income elderly will be devised, that may include paying relatives for caregiving — probably at less than the rate paid a private provider."
   
• "There will be an increase in the number of assisted living type facilities, especially those with specialized functions (e.g., some specifically for dementia care)."
   
• "Working middle aged Americans will press for more Family Leave type arrangements (e.g., flextime, part time) that allow them to become more involved in parent care, and employers will find it advantageous to make such arrangements to keep good workers."

Educated Guesses 2003 | Full Listing