Download a web or print quality photo of Dan Turner

As sports utility vehicles grow more popular, more Americans take to the road in them. But as the possibility of another war in the Middle East looms in 2003, SUV drivers may be forced to leave their big rigs at home, suggests Dr. Dan Turner, professor of civil and environmental engineering at The University of Alabama College of Engineering.

"I certainly hope that we do not go to war, but if we do, it can cause major changes in people's lifestyles. They may no longer be able to afford to drive SUVs or to drive so many miles daily," says Turner, who also directs the University Transportation Center for Alabama.

Americans are the most mobile people on Earth, and take for granted their ability to drive (cheaply) anywhere they want to, whenever they want to, Turner said. Since the United States heavily depends on the Persian Gulf for oil supply, war could cause serious changes. SUVs consume more fuel than the average-sized vehicle, so owners of this type of vehicle could be the most affected by another Persian Gulf crisis.

Turner said if the price of petroleum rises and the price of gasoline shifts at the pump, the cost of travel could dramatically increase.

"The price of owning and driving an automobile is hidden for most of us," Turner said. "We pay for it with plastic." But if the price of gasoline suddenly doubles at the pump (like it did in the late 1970s), the shock will be enormous. People will suddenly realize how much they pay to travel because the gas increase will reduce the amount of income they have to spend and probably change their lifestyle, Turner said.

Educated Guesses 2003 | Full Listing