The September terrorist attacks will continue to have an impact on American travelers throughout the coming year -- we may begin to go places at nearly the same rates as before, but not with our previous sense of security, predicts a University of Alabama travel researcher.

"Everyone does dwell on the recent attacks, and this unease won't disappear quickly," said Dr. Jay Lindly, associate professor of civil and environmental engineering, and a researcher with the University Transportation Center headquartered on the UA campus. "Although we may be known for our short attention spans, Americans will not forget this. This is different than anything we've faced before."

Travel rates by most modes of transportation were way down in the days and weeks following the attacks, said Lindly. People wanted to stay close to home, to their families, and to familiar surroundings, so there were fewer of us traveling by highways and railways, as well as in the air. Now we have begun to travel again, but our patterns of travel have changed, along with our sense of safety during trips.

Highway statistics in 2002 will meet expectations for a normal year, said Lindly. "People will be using their cars, especially since gasoline prices are low, and don't seem to have a reason to move up until next summer. But air travel will continue to be somewhat depressed. Airplanes faced a double-whammy - they were the method of attack on Sept. 11, and as things started to recover, there was the airliner crash in Queens, New York."

The numbers of Americans who travel by air, at least domestically, is now increasing and will continue that trend; but they will not get back to their pre-911 level during the coming year, Lindly forecasts. Most people who had regularly flown will go back to it, although perhaps not as frequently as before, "and there will be some folks who just won't go if a plane is their only option," he added.

Most tourist and vacation destinations reported a decline in visitors during the last part of 2001, and travel to major tourist spots will stay less popular in the coming year, according to Lindly. "People will opt for more short trips now, regional trips with their families, places that don't take them too far from home," he explained, so national tourist attractions, and particularly international ones, will continue to be hard hit in the foreseeable future.

Has there been another event in history that compares to the Sept. 11 attacks, in their impact on travel? "I can't cite another instance," said Lindly. "In the World War II years, we weren't the national and global travelers we are today, so Pearl Harbor and other milestones of previous eras didn't have nearly the impact that we see from the events of 2001," he said. "Our view of our place in the world, and of our safety in traveling to other places, has changed, and probably forever."

Dr. Jay Lindly can be reached at 205/248-1724 (office), 205/758-6867 (home) or jlindly@coe.eng.ua.edu.
 

Educated Guesses 2002 | Full Listing