Devastating terrorist attacks against the United States are not apt to occur in 2002, says a University of Alabama professor who is an expert in international relations and military defense strategy.

"Next year will be a fairly tranquil year where we try to sort out and regroup from what we've been through in 2001," said Dr. Donald Snow, professor of political science. "There will likely be a lull in coordinated terrorism, although we will probably have a few isolated instances of copycat terrorism," he said.

"We will break the al Qaeda network. There will still be cells around the world, but it will be, essentially, leaderless," Snow said, noting that poor military strategy by Taliban fighters combined with effective air strikes by the American military allowed the United States to quickly achieve most of its military goals ahead of schedule. "The Taliban proved to be tremendously stupid, militarily, in the sense they concentrated their troops together," he said.

The U.S. military will focus its efforts in 2002 on state building, not fighting, Snow said. "Americans in uniform will certainly celebrate Christmas 2002 in Kabul because there will have to be a peacekeeping force in place, and it will include Americans -- the Afghanis will insist on that."

Snow said he does not expect military action against Sadaam Hussein in the coming year, despite speculation that Hussein and Iraq would be the nation's next military target.

"The timing could hardly be worse," Snow said of military action against Iraq. "The secret for us is to lower our profile in the Middle East, not raise it." Any additional military action by the U.S. is likely to further destabilize an already incredibly unstable environment, he said.

As for the major players in the Middle East -- Israel and Palestine -- look for little change. "There is virtually no likelihood of any progress in the peace process between Israel and Palestine," Snow said. "As long as Yasser Arafat and Ariel Sharon are in charge, you are not going to see any progress."

Dr. Donald Snow can be reached at 205/348-3808 (office), 205/556-5745 (home) or dsnow@tenhoor.as.ua.edu.
 

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