For the 21st consecutive year, the Office of Media Relations at The University of Alabama offers you a unique feature series -- our faculty experts predict what lies ahead in the coming year for our military, fashion, the economy and more.

A sampling of this year's Educated Guesses:

• U.S. military to focus on peace-keeping
• Mini baby boom in the summer of 2002
• Fewer people to move from their residences
• Mass customization of clothing
• Increased backlash against anti-terrorism policy, including military tribunals
• Wal-Mart to expand to Japan and a storied department store to hover near collapse
• OPEC's demise

Complete news releases, including contact information for each expert source, can be found by visiting the full listing of Educated Guesses 2002. For more information, contact Chris Bryant in the UA media relations office at 205/348-8323.

Terrorist Attacks Against U.S. to Subside in Coming Year

Devastating terrorist attacks against the United States are not apt to occur in 2002, says a University of Alabama professor who is an expert in international relations and military defense strategy. "Next year will be a fairly tranquil year where we try to sort out and regroup from what we've been through in 2001," said Dr. Donald Snow, professor of political science. "There will likely be a lull in coordinated terrorism, although we will probably have a few isolated instances of copycat terrorism." The U.S. military will focus its efforts in 2002 on state building, not fighting. "Americans in uniform will certainly celebrate Christmas 2002 in Kabul because there will have to be a peacekeeping force in place, and it will include Americans -- the Afghanis will insist on that," he said.

Dr. Donald Snow, dsnow@tenhoor.as.ua.edu

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American Marriage Rate Up in 2002/Baby Boomlet Due in Summer

Look for more marriages to take place in the next year and a "baby boomlet" in the summer of 2002, predicts Dr. Nick Stinnett, a University of Alabama professor of marriage and family studies. Stinnett says the increases in marriages and births can be directly correlated to the tragic events of Sept. 11, 2001. "In times of stress and crises, people often draw closer to one another for comfort and consolation -- as an antidote to uncertainty and loneliness," he explains. "And in couple relationships, that drawing closer may involve sexual activity and consequently the possibility of pregnancy. Then, too, some people regard sex as a good stress reliever!" Stinnett says marriages are also apt to increase in 2002.

Dr. Nick Stinnett, nstinne1@ches.ua.edu

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Resilient Nation to Search for Safety in Sameness as Recovery from Sept. 11 Continues

Many Americans are likely to equate sameness with safety and, as a result, will be less likely to move from their homes during the year following the deadly terrorist attacks, predicts a University of Alabama psychology professor who has expertise in trauma and survival. "I think people will move less in the coming year," said Dr. Jerome Rosenberg, an associate professor in psychology and New College. "I think people will feel a sense that sameness is related to security, and I think people will want to be close to their families." The extent to which people will remain troubled in 2002 by fears of anthrax poisoning or other copycat threats will vary among individuals, Rosenberg said. "I think it will be a balance between many Americans who will ignore it, those who live with it, and those who will scale back their lives in many ways because of it."

Dr. Jerome Rosenberg, jrosenbe@bama.ua.edu

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Look for Made-to-Fit Clothes in 2002 and Beyond

Consumers longing for a good-fitting pair of blue jeans will get their wish in the new year as a University of Alabama clothing expert says we should expect to see, and be able to afford, clothing that is literally made just for us. Dr. Brecca Farr, assistant professor of clothing, textiles and design in the UA College of Human Environmental Sciences, says mass customization is well on its way out of the research and design phase and into our closets. Mass customization focuses on providing consumers a "common" product when, where, and how they want it. For clothing, it usually means customized fit or creating your own garment - sometimes even designing your own fabric. "What was once the domain of the mass production is now entering the realm of the mass customized," Farr says.

Dr. Brecca Farr, brecca.farr@ua.edu

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Military Tribunals to Proceed Despite Growing Opposition, Possible Supreme Court Case

Early public support for President George W. Bush's executive order to try suspected terrorists in secret military tribunals will erode as Congress and the American people question the wisdom of the plan in the coming months, predicts a University of Alabama constitutional law expert. Bryan Fair, UA professor of law, says Bush can expect members of Congress from both parties to raise questions about military tribunals and about the U.S. attorney general's round up of Arab Americans and Arab nationals in connection with the terrorist attacks. "Support for these tribunals and detentions will diminish as people see their own rights in jeopardy," Fair said. However, Fair said he expects military tribunals to go forward despite criticism, and, while Bush's executive order initially implied that the tribunals would be used only for suspected members of al Qaeda captured outside the United States, they will also be used to try suspected terrorists who have been detained within U.S. borders.

Bryan Fair, bfair@law.ua.edu

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Computer Companies to Seek Bankruptcy Protection; Wal-Mart to Invade the Land of the Rising Sun

At least two major computer manufacturers will seek Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection before September 2002, says Dr. Robert Robicheaux, Bruno Professor of Retailing and director of the Hess Institute for Retailing Development at The University of Alabama. It may be Apple, Gateway and/or Compaq or some other current high technology phenomenon, he says. "A Midwestern United States-based entrepreneur will announce the introduction of a technology that completely makes obsolete traditional integrated computer chips. The new product will enable easy and inexpensive remote Internet service access via satellite transmission technology," Robicheaux says. He also predicts that by the fourth quarter of 2002, "cash rich Wal-Mart will leap into the Japanese market and make its largest ever acquisition of brick and mortar retailers. Wal-Mart's no-frills, one-size fits all and 'low prices always' strategies will absolutely flourish in Japanese society," says Robicheaux. "Despite a surging global economic recovery by the fourth quarter, both Sears and J.C. Penney will continue to struggle to find a profitable competitive market-service position and will hover perilously close to total financial collapse."

Dr. Robert A. Robicheaux, rrobiche@cba.ua.edu

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Massive Changes will Turn Oil Industry Upside Down, Shock the Economy

Unparalleled threats and opportunities emerging in the oil industry will define the nation's economy next year, says Dr. Robert Robicheaux, Bruno Professor of Retail Marketing and director of the Hess Institute for Retailing Development at The University of Alabama. "Massive changes will occur in 2002 that will turn the oil industry upside down and shock the world economy," Robicheaux predicts. "First, President Bush will announce that the United States will open much more of the Alaskan oil fields to development. Second, in an attempt to energize its flagging economy, Mexico will increase its shipments of oil to the U.S. Third, it will be announced by midyear that a major new oil field was discovered in the Caspian. Finally, the increased supply of oil to the west flowing from Alaska and Mexico will place unmanageable strains on OPEC. Bickering and infighting will intensify and lead to its total demise by year's end. Political instability will intensify throughout the Arab oil-producing countries in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and Egypt will emerge finally to exert proper influence and lead the region to a new era of peace, political stability and economic prosperity."

Dr. Robert A. Robicheaux, rrobiche@cba.ua.edu

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