A strong challenger facing an incumbent governor -- combined with a couple of hot-button issues -- is normally enough to create widespread voter interest, but a University of Alabama professor emeritus says not even that likely combination will be enough to get people to take a keen interest in the 2002 Alabama governor's race.

"My prediction is the candidates will have a somewhat difficult time getting the public's attention," said Dr. William J. Stewart, professor emeritus of political science. "I think the attention of the public is focused more on international and national issues, and voter turn-out could possibly be less than it was four years ago. When you are carrying out a war on terrorism, it's hard to focus on what's going on in Alabama."

"I do expect Don Siegelman to be the nominee of the Democratic Party," Stewart said. "I foresee a close race between Bob Riley and Steve Windham for the Republican nomination. I feel one of them will face Siegelman in the 2002 November general election."

Stewart stopped short of predicting a winner in the general election. "I do see Siegelman as vulnerable. I think Bob Riley will be a strong candidate. He has an excellent personality and, at this early stage, I see him winning some support."

Constitutional reform, along with education funding, will be the two most discussed political topics in the coming year, with little progress likely to be made on either one, Stewart said.

"It does not look promising," Stewart said of efforts to develop a new constitution for the state. "We won't make a lot of progress toward getting one in 2002."

Polls indicate Alabamians want a strong education system, but they also indicate the state's citizens wish to keep their extremely low tax structures. "We can't have it both ways," Stewart said. Low taxes will win out -- at least in the short term. "My educated guess is that we will continue to be in a crisis as far as education funding is concerned."

At the national level, Alabama's incumbent Senator will be victorious, Stewart predicted. "Jeff Sessions will be elected to another term in the U.S. Senate."

William J. Stewart can be reached at 205/348-3809 (office), 205/556-3043 (home) or wstewartj@aol.com.
 

Educated Guesses 2002 | Full Listing