At least two major computer manufacturers will seek Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection before September 2002, says Dr. Robert Robicheaux, Bruno Professor of Retailing and director of the Hess Institute for Retailing Development at The University of Alabama.

It may be Apple, Gateway and/or Compaq or some other current high technology phenomenon, he says. "A Midwestern United States-based entrepreneur will announce the introduction of a technology that completely makes obsolete traditional integrated computer chips. The new product will enable easy and inexpensive remote Internet service access via satellite transmission technology," Robicheaux says.

In addition, computers will be half the current size and 'desktop' units will become all but obsolete immediately, says Robicheaux. "The 'new age computers' will be lightweight and much more powerful than anything available today but will retail for less than $1,250. It will be predicted by industry experts that by 2005, few if any "desktop relics" will continue to run anywhere in corporate America," he says. Japan, still dependent on computer chip technology, will reel perilously near total collapse early in the fourth quarter of 2002, according to Robicheaux.

He also predicts that by the fourth quarter of 2002, "cash rich" Wal-Mart will leap into the Japanese market and make its largest ever acquisition of brick and mortar retailers. Most leading retail experts will charge that Wal-Mart will have made its grandest strategic blunder ever. But, the young and internationally minded segments of Japanese consumers will embrace Wal-Mart's low prices and undifferentiated service offerings. "Wal-Mart's no-frills, one-size fits all and 'low prices always' strategies will absolutely flourish in Japanese society," says Robicheaux. "Wal-Mart will take Japan by storm and Sam Walton will become almost immediately an icon and cult idol there."

Finally, in early December of 2002, Carrefour, Europe's premier department store retailer, will announce dramatic plans to enter the United States, says Robicheaux. "Despite a surging global economic recovery by the fourth quarter, both Sears and J.C. Penney will continue to struggle to find a profitable competitive market-service position and will hover perilously close to total financial collapse," he says. "Both will invite Carrefour to preliminary talks that may lead to the acquisition of one or even both of America's storied department store chains in 2003."

Dr. Robert A. Robicheaux can be reached at 205/348-8919 (office), 205/987-2808 (home) or rrobiche@cba.ua.edu.
 

Educated Guesses 2002 | Full Listing