Southeast's Winter Predicted Cooler, Drought Not Likely A Problem Next Summer

Keep your coats handy.

The upcoming winter will bring slightly below average temperatures, while next summer will give a break to Southerners who sweltered through last year's drought and record-high temperatures, predicts a University of Alabama geography professor.

Dr. David Shankman, a professor of geography who regularly teaches a climatology class at UA, said the weather in 2001 will not be the newsmaker it was this year.

"I expect we'll have a slightly cooler winter ­ nothing extreme," Shankman said. "The drought will not continue through this next summer," he predicted. And while the typical dry spell might pop up during the middle of the year, "we will not have anything near the drought conditions we had this year," he said.

Shankman's predictions are based, in part, on what is happening or ­ more aptly ­ what is not happening, in the Pacific Ocean.

"There is no evidence of those specific water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that would cause those extreme types of weather patterns for the Southeast," Shankman said.

The absence of these atypical ocean temperatures and their accompanying complications ­ sometimes referred to as the El Nino or La Nina effects ­ means weather will not be as prominently discussed in the coming year.

Dr. David Shankman, 205/348-1534, (office); shankman@bama.ua.edu