For the 27th consecutive year, The University of Alabama’s Office of Media Relations offers predictions from faculty experts for the coming year. While these “educated guesses” don’t always come true, our track record over the years has been good.

So what’s ahead for 2008? Look for Clinton and Romney to square off in November, gas prices to remain above $2.50 a gallon, drug testing to take center stage at the Olympics, violent crime to escalate, water – or the lack of it – to have a bigger impact on average American, Baby Boomers to seek respect in Asia, and much more.

Educated Guesses 2008

Clinton, Romney to Square Off; New Swing States to be Key – Come November, you’ll likely be deciding between U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, according to the predictions of a University of Alabama political scientist. “They will both have their bad moments, but neither will make huge blunders because of inexperience,” says David Lanoue, chair of the political science department at UA. The top issues in the 2008 presidential campaign will include health care, immigration and national security, Lanoue says. With about 40 states already in the Democratic or Republican column, Lanoue sees the election coming down to about 10 swing states. “Where are the new swing states?” he says. “Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and Arizona – Arizona maybe not so much, but it’s certainly not Goldwater’s Arizona anymore.”

Contact: David Lanoue, dlanoue@tenhoor.as.ua.edu

Gas to Remain above $2.50 throughout ’08 – Near record oil prices highlighted the energy picture for 2007. Next year, consumers will face oil prices that, while not as high as in 2007, will still be higher than they should be, says a University of Alabama engineering professor. “There is no recovery in sight for the value of the dollar against other currencies, and this alone will ensure that oil prices stay high,” says Dr. Peter Clark, associate professor of chemical and biological engineering at UA. In the absence of any upheavals in oil producing regions that result in supply disruptions, gasoline prices should begin to moderate in the late spring. “Do not expect the price to drop below $2.50 per gallon for regular,” says Clark.

Contact: Dr. Peter Clark, pclark@eng.ua.edu

Drug Testing Takes Center Stage at Olympics – The upcoming Beijing Olympics may be the first modern day games where drug testing gets more attention than the events, predicts Dr. Mike Perko, chair of The University of Alabama’s health science department. “A serious world-wide adoption of drug testing in organized professional and amateur sports, both in the U.S. and Europe, will occur in 2008, says Perko. “As skill levels increase faster than genetics, a wide variety of sports such as tennis, golf, cricket, and race car driving will all adopt or enhance drug testing. Unfortunately, we can expect more world-class athletes to be caught as well in the upcoming year.”

Contact: Dr. Mike Perko, mperko@ches.ua.edu

Violent Crime to Escalate, ’08 a Watershed Year in Gun Control Argument – Violent crime will continue to increase in 2008 after a slowing economy and cuts to community policing programs, says Dr. David Forde, professor of criminal justice at The University of Alabama. What’s more, 2008 could be a watershed year for communities trying to regulate handgun ownership as the U.S. Supreme Court reviews a Second Amendment challenge to a District of Columbia ban on handguns. “In the middle of an economic downturn, resources get trimmed,” Forde says. “COPS on the beat funds for new officers were significantly cut four years ago, and additional monies were diverted two years ago to anti-methamphetamine efforts, so it’s no surprise that crime is back up.”

Contact: David Forde, dforde@ua.edu

Buckle Your Economic Seatbelt; Alabama is in for Rocky 2008 – Surprise, surprise. Things will be less than rosy for Alabama’s economy over the next 12 months or so, according to Ahmad Ijaz, economic analyst at the Center for Business and Economic Research at The University of Alabama. Ijaz says the Alabama economy will grow by 2 to 2.3 percent next year, only slightly better than the national economy. “High energy prices, increasing interest rates, the falling dollar, a downturn in the housing market, and tighter lending conditions for both consumers and business are expected to have a significant impact on the U.S. economy in 2008,” Ijaz says.

Contact Ahmad Ijaz, aijaz@cba.ua.edu

‘No Child Left Behind’ to be Reauthorized with Significant Changes – The “No Child Left Behind” Act will be reauthorized in 2008 but with some significant changes, predicts Dr. Joyce Stallworth, professor of education at The University of Alabama. Stallworth says provisions in the reauthorization will include some increases in funding because Congress has realized that unfunded mandates are not working, clarification on the meaning of “adequate yearly progress,” less reliance on standardized testing as the single measure of what students know and are able to do and more uses of multiple performance assessments, and increased efforts to address the staggering dropout rates in high schools across the country.

Contact: Dr. Joyce B. Stallworth, jstallwo@bamaed.ua.edu

New Developments in Cell Phones, Service Expected in 2008 -- Free cell phone service? That’s one of many ideas that will be kicked around in coming months, says Dr. Michael Hardin, associate dean for research at the Culverhouse College of Commerce and professor of statistics at The University of Alabama. “Cell service will be an interesting industry to watch,” Hardin says. “Just this month, AT&T will allow other phones to use their network for little or no cost. Further, the strong relationship between the IPHONE and AT&T is creating an interesting brand as well. Other cell service providers are going to be forced to counter, and probably the first shots will be fired in the first quarter of 2008. I predict the IPhone will eventually replace the IPOD,” Hardin says. “No one wants to carry around a pocket full of devices, so having your phone, calendar, music and video player in one device will be appealing.

Contact: Dr. Michael Hardin, mhardin@cba.ua.edu

Online Anti-War Protests Increase in 2008 – The use of online venues for protesting the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan will continue to gain steam as the conflicts drag on, predicts a University of Alabama social change expert. “Anti-war organizers have found that ‘on the ground’ protest alone has yielded little impact in terms of persuading the mainstream public and gathering like-minded activists, especially as the American public and youth cultures become desensitized to images of marches and demonstrations in the news media,” says Dr. Jason Edward Black, assistant professor of communication studies. Black says that social networking sites like Facebook and MySpace will persist as instantaneous and accessible mediums to recruit activists and organize pockets of protest. “These networking sites allow mass-organizing through friends lists and blogs, and can even generate online petitions, fundraising and email-writing campaigns,” he says.

Contact: Dr. Jason Black, jason.black@ua.edu

Respect Factor to Drive Affluent Baby Boomers to Asia – Baby Boomers are likely to flock to Asia in increasing numbers in the year ahead in search of respect that’s often gone unpaid in the U.S., says a University of Alabama professor with expertise in Chinese business management. “China in particular has a very different view of their elderly than we,” says Dr. Daniel Bachrach, assistant professor of management at UA and a member of the International Association for Chinese Management Research. “I wouldn't be at all surprised if there was a significant movement of retiring baby boomers heading to Asia, with a good bit of cash in their pockets, to soak up some of the respect that is missing for them here in the U.S.”

Contact: Dr. Daniel Bachrach, dbachrac@cba.ua.edu

More Drug-Resistant Infections to be Identified – Drug-resistant infections, including the headline-grabbing MRSA (Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus), will continue to be a top concern for health-care providers in 2008, says a University of Alabama health expert. “We will identify more drug-resistant organisms, and they will have a greater impact than they’ve had in the past,” says Dr. John C. Higginbotham, associate dean for research and health policy at UA’s College of Community Health Sciences. “With MRSA, we’re seeing more community-acquired MRSA than in the past.” On another front, Higginbotham warns that because of globalization, a worldwide pandemic, like the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, might be lying on the horizon – if not in 2008, then some time in the future.

Contact: John Higginbotham, jhiggin@cchs.ua.edu

Hybrids, ‘Green’ Fuels Remain Big, Diesels to Surge in 2009 – A University of Alabama engineering professor predicts hybrids, diesels and biofuels will remain the big issues in the automotive market for 2008. Dr. Clark Midkiff, professor of mechanical engineering and director of UA’s Center for Advanced Vehicle Technologies, says the average American has become more sensitive to the impact cars and trucks have on our economy, environment and security. “Hybrid electrics will continue to sell well, although the frenzy has ebbed as consumers get used to paying $3 per gallon of gasoline and have been lulled to complacency by the past year’s lack of hurricanes and other oil supply disruptions,” says Midkiff. “Although it has been a long time coming, diesel-powered automobiles will surge in the next two years as carmakers introduce new vehicles that meet the strict new emissions standards.” Another trend that will grow is the use of domestic-sourced, non-petroleum fuels.

Contact: Dr. Clark Midkiff, cmidkiff@eng.ua.edu

Squabbles to Prevent Progressive Legislation in Alabama – The 2008 Alabama legislative session promises to be fraught with partisan bickering, a University of Alabama political scientist predicts. Dr. William Stewart, professor emeritus of political science at UA, says the Alabama Legislature, which convenes Feb. 5, 2008, will continue its trend of fighting between Republicans and Democrats that began in 2007. “The Republicans and the Democrats in the Senate have been at loggerheads ever since Gov. Riley began his second term,” Stewart says. “There’s still going to be intense partisan conflict that prevents passage of progressive legislation or even rational consideration of such.”

Contact: Bill Stewart, wm300@comcast.net

W-A-T-E-R to Become 4-Letter Word -- Water, or more precisely the lack of it, will be on everyone’s mind in 2008, predicts a University of Alabama climatologist. “Water will be the biggest buzzword of the year,” says Dr. David Brommer, assistant professor of geography at UA. And while the drought received lots of attention last summer, Brommer says it will have an even larger impact on the average citizen in the year ahead. “We are going to feel it more this year,” Brommer predicts. “We talked about it a lot this past year. There were a lot of news stories about it, but many people’s lives weren’t directly impacted. It will be a four letter word for some people this spring and summer,” Brommer predicts.

Contact: Dr. David Brommer, 205/348-7269, dmbrommer@bama.ua.edu

State Housing Market to Face Challenges, Opportunities in 2008 -- The Alabama housing market will start 2008 with about 43,000 houses up for sale – 8,000 more than last year, says Grayson Glaze, executive director of the Alabama Center for Real Estate at The University of Alabama. It will likely be the third quarter of next year before any significant reductions in inventory begin to materialize, the Center predicts. The bottom line, Glaze says, is “with inventories at historically high levels in many areas across the state, consumers should anticipate more near-term price erosion as the marketplace will continue to be subject to the laws of supply and demand. The good news is that interest rates remain historically low, and the 30-year mortgage rate recently reached a two-year low, and more rate cuts are likely to continue into the first quarter of 2008,” Glaze says.

Contact: Grayson Glaze, 205/348-4117, gglaze@cba.ua.edu

A ‘Caregiving Crisis’ Looms in 2008 – A “caregiving crisis” is likely to occur in 2008, says Dr. Lucinda Lee Roff, professor of social work at The University of Alabama. “Family caregivers provide about 80 percent of all long term care services in the U.S., but there are fewer family members available to help in this way than before,” says Roff. “Also, of the 46 million Americans who care for an adult relative or friend, 59 percent are employed outside the home. These caregivers are feeling increasing emotional and physical strain as their responsibilities at home compete with their work responsibilities.” Roff says that more than 1.2 million additional direct service workers will be needed to help these caregivers; however, these workers are not easily found or kept.

Contact: Dr. Lucinda Lee Roff, 205/348-6736, lroff@sw.ua.edu