Dr. David Lanoue

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. - A University of Alabama political scientist says while passage of Gov. Bob Riley’s tax package is an “uphill battle,” its chances are stronger because it came from a Republican.

“This definitely shows that Bob Riley is not your garden-variety politician,” said Dr. David Lanoue, professor and chair of political science at The University of Alabama. “Either he is indifferent to whether or not he’s re-elected, or this is an extraordinary amount of political courage,” Lanoue said of the tax and government accountability package, which has been estimated to provide, if passed, up to $1.3 billion in funding. The state faces an anticipated $500 million shortfall in next year’s budgets.

“I don’t think a Democrat would have gotten away with it,” Lanoue said of Riley’s proposal. “People assume, right or wrong, that Democrats see tax increases as a first resort and Republicans view it as a last resort.”

Lanoue said it was unusual during the campaign to see a conservative Republican governor speak to issues of tax fairness, but it’s even more atypical to see the person take action. “I’m not sure anybody anywhere expected him to do anything about it,” Lanoue said. Indications are Riley’s plan would significantly raise the minimum income level at which the working poor are required to begin paying income taxes.

The accountability aspects of Riley’s package are reported to include such measures as the elimination of tenure for assistant principals and some staff hired after July 1, 2003, increases in cost of state employees and public education employees health insurance costs, and increasing eligibility requirements for state and education employees to draw full health benefits when they retire.

Lanoue says these and other government accountability measures are vital to the governor. “Having put the tax plan out, Riley is going to be very serious with the cuts he’s going to make,” the UA political scientist said.

The timing of the package, and the fact it’s offered by a Republican governor, offers advantages, politically, for both the governor and legislators, Lanoue said.

“This creates an opportunity for the legislature. Bob Riley has given them the political cover to deal seriously with the state’s financial crisis. It remains to be seen if both sides (Republicans and Democrats) will put aside the partisan antiquity of the past several months,” Lanoue said. “If Riley is concerned about re-election, this gives him three years to recover if it goes badly.”

Lanoue says the vast tax and accountability package provides a historic opportunity for change, one that is not likely to arise again in the near future.

“This is an undeniable crossroads for this state,” Lanoue said. “If Bob Riley can sell the package to the legislature and the people, it will fundamentally change the way public service is financed in this state. I’m not sure if we’ll see anyone with the political courage to do this come along again for quite a while.”

Lanoue earned his bachelor’s degree from the University of California, San Diego, in 1982, and his doctorate from the State University of New York at Stony Brook in 1986. He is the author of “From Camelot to the Teflon President” (Greenwood, 1988) and coauthor of “The Joint Press Conference: The History, Impact, and Prospects of American Presidential Debates” (Greenwood, 1991). His work has appeared in such journals as the Journal of Politics, British Journal of Political Science, Public Opinion Quarterly and American Politics Quarterly. Lanoue, who joined UA in 2001, has previously served as chair of political science at Texas Tech University and at the University of California, Riverside.