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The University of Alabama

Let’s Skip Next Year and Jump to 2011, Economically-Speaking

EduGuesses2010We can’t skip over the coming year, but if we could we would find 2011 a lot better year, economically-speaking, says Ahmad Ijaz, economic analyst at the Center for Business and Economic Research at The University of Alabama.  

“The Alabama economy will grow only about 1.8 percent in 2010 following a decline of 2.1 percent in 2009,” Ijaz says. Ah, but what about 2011? “We think the economy will grow about 3.7 percent in 2011,” he says.

He also expects non-farm employment to decline by 0.1 percent next year, but to increase 1.2 percent in 2011.

Manufacturing payrolls will likely decline about 2.0 percent through 2010, followed by an increase of 0.6 percent in 2011. Manufacturing industries are expected to lose almost 4,800 jobs in 2010 and gain 1,400 jobs in 2011.

Alabama’s gross domestic product, or GDP, is expected to begin to expand in 2010, although the growth will be sluggish.

“The Alabama economy fell into a recession almost seven months later than the U.S. economy,” Ijaz says, “but the downturn has been severe, and the state faces the same challenges as the nation on the road to recovery. Significant slowdown in consumer and business spending, tight lending conditions, and weakness in both commercial and residential real estate markets will continue to dampen growth in the state’s economy, at least through the first quarter of 2010.”

On a brighter note, Ijaz says, motor vehicle production probably will increase by 5.9 percent next year with overall demand for light trucks and automobiles rising slightly compared to 2009.

So, what about all that federal cash flowing down from Washington?

“Some aspects of the stimulus funds, in the form of personal tax cuts and transfer payments, depreciation allowances on new business investments, and extension of credits for new home buyers, should also help the state’s economy regain stability,” Ijaz says.

The University of Alabama, a student-centered research university, is experiencing significant growth in both enrollment and academic quality. This growth, which is positively impacting the campus and the state's economy, is in keeping with UA's vision to be the university of choice for the best and brightest students. UA, the state's flagship university, is an academic community united in its commitment to enhancing the quality of life for all Alabamians.